| | I spent all day today writing a post for my Other Blog, a mammoth article entitled A survey of anti-cryonics writing. I won't disable comments here, but of course if it's about the post it should be there. This blogging-of-substance thing will be hard to do more than once a month! | comments: Leave a comment  |
| Consider the following exchanges:
- 1. Gerda: So you believe that all belief is the product of custom and circumstance (or: childhood buffets, class struggle...). Isn't that position self-limiting? Mustn't you see yourself as
reflecting only a single complex of circumstances?
- Grobian: Your objection is inapplicable, for it is merely the product of blind forces. Moreover, your childhood buffets were pernicious and regrettable, for they have set you against this truth.
- 2. Gerda: So you believe that all knowledge comes from God in proportion to our virtue or worth, and that all ignorance, error, and uncertainty come from the Devil in proportion to our vices. May I ask what evidence you have for this remarkable thesis?
- Grobian: I pity you infinitely for your sins.
- 3. Gerda: Doctor Grobian, I am not crazy! I stole the bread because my children were hungry. Why do you assume that every crime is caused by illness?
- Grobian: Why do you deny it?
- Gerda: I am not playing a game. I really want an answer to my question.
- Grobian: Obviously your ego cannot cope with the truth and you display this inadequacy in hostility to your doctor. I will not recommend your release.
- 4. Gerda: So you believe x, y, and z. But you are mistaken. Consider evidence a, b, and c. What do you say?
- Grobian: It's a mystery. If I could understand it, I wouldn't believe it. I can't help it if it's the truth. One day perhaps you'll see the light too.
In each of these cases something has gone wrong with the process of debate. Peter Suber, Logical Rudeness, 1987 | comments: 6 comments or Leave a comment  |
| How do you tell a reasonable guess about what future technology might bring (eg a manned mission to Mars) from unreasonable guesses (eg teleportation)?
I'm inclined to think that you have to get down to the technical nitty-gritty. If you don't know the field, it might be reasonable to think that in the future we'll prove that our ciphers are unbreakable. Actually, for everyday useful ciphers, a proof that they are secure with no unproven assumptions is much harder than you might think if you've not studied CS. There's no reason I'd expect you to know that if you're not a computer scientist, but if your vision of the near future included provably unbreakable ciphers, I'd want to explain why that doesn't look very likely at the moment.
What do you think? | comments: 49 comments or Leave a comment  |
| In motivated reasoning, memory searches, interpretations of incoming information, evaluations of arguments, and even perception, are biased in such a way that we will be more likely to arrive at a desired conclusion [...] Motivated Reasoning I: Hot Cognition
What recommendations do you have for combating this cognitive bias in yourself and arrive at the truth? Faced with this possibility, what have you tried? Note that in doing this we can't assume the truth of the matter one way or the other since that's precisely what's at issue; the goal is to arrive at the correct conclusion, not to believe whatever is most pessimistic or most popular. | comments: 11 comments or Leave a comment  |
| I may not reply to everything in that 159-comment thread but thanks to everyone who participated. I hope people don't mind if I carry on asking for your help in thinking about this. I might post articles on specific areas people raised, but first I thought to ask this: my Google-fu may be failing me. I'd appreciate any links anyone can find to good articles arguing against signing up for cryonics, or pointing out flaws in arguments made for cryosuspension. I don't mean South Park, thanks :-) I'm looking for something that really intends to be persuasive.
thanks again!
Update: here's some I've found
If you find any of these articles at all convincing, let me know and I'll point out the problems with them.
Update: while I am definitely interested in continuing to read your arguments, I'm really really keen to know about anyone anywhere on the Internet who seems well-informed on the subject and writes arguing against it. Such people seem to be strikingly few and far between, especially on the specific question of the plausibility of recovery. There's a hypothesis here on why that might be, but I'm not sure it's enough to wholly account for it. | comments: 53 comments or Leave a comment  |
| | I'm considering signing up with the Cryonics Institute. Are you signed up? I'd be interested to hear your reasons why or why not. It does of course sound crazy, but when you press past that initial reaction to find out why it's crazy, I haven't heard a really satisfactory argument yet, and I'm interested to hear what people think. There are many reasons it might not work, but are there reasons to think it's really unlikely to work? How likely does recovery need to be for it to be worth it? | comments: 230 comments or Leave a comment  |
| Back in 2008, the smart liberal spin on "post-partisanship" is that it was in part an effort to put a popular, centrist sheen on a relatively liberal agenda. Instead what Obama has wound up with is an unpopular, liberal sheen on a relatively centrist agenda. -- Post-Partisanship Epic Fail?, Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com | comments: 1 comment or Leave a comment  |
| Just to follow up on what I was saying to people yesterday: Salem suffered brain damage and fractures, including a skull fracture, during the attack.
[...]
Judge John Reddihough said it was “ironic” that the attack had left their victim unfit to plead for his knife attack, sparing him a “very long” period in jail. Salem was given a two-year supervision order.
[...]
A neighbour urged them to stop and said Salem would be killed, he said. But they continued “like a pack of animals” and it was “fortuitous” he did not die, Judge Reddihough said.
He said: “You involved yourselves in a terribly violent and unnecessary assault on Waled Salem which amounted to a revenge attack.” --Munir Hussain and brother Tokeer convicted over Desborough Park Road, High Wycombe GBH attack, Bucks Free Press, 2009-12-15
As far as I can tell, it was strictly speaking illegal for them to arm themselves, give chase and attack the guy when they caught him, but it's hard to imagine anyone pursuing them for that. It was the continued vicious assault after they'd already brought the guy to a halt that led to jail sentences.
Update: Thanks to autopope for linking to this below. What sort of society praises vigilantes with cricket bats?, Catherine Bennett, Observer, Sunday 20 December 2009
(Postscript re another conversation: Blu-Ray 3D will require special displays and there's a list of suitable displays here) | comments: 11 comments or Leave a comment  |
| In masonery, is there anything you can do if the hole is too big for the rawlplug? I tried using a bigger rawlplug but then I find the screw is too small to make it expand properly, and I can't use a bigger screw because it won't fit through the hole in the bracket we're using for these blinds. I have this idea that if only it would stay put and not spin or push in then everything would be fine, which leads me to imagine things like dipping it in Polyfilla before shoving it in the wall, but that's probably not wise in real life. Any ideas?
Thanks! | comments: 14 comments or Leave a comment  |
| I just released version 0.8 of a small bit of software I wrote for work, mercurial-server.
mercurial-server gives your developers remote read/write access to centralized Mercurial repositories using SSH public key authentication; it provides convenient and fine-grained key management and access control.
Now I'm looking for the help of a Debian developer to get the software into Debian, and later into Ubuntu. Any of the Debian developers reading this fancy giving me any advice or getting involved?
Thanks! | comments: 10 comments or Leave a comment  |
| How Dare You Atheists Make Your Case, Round 2: Persuasion Equals IntoleranceWhere does this idea come from that persuasion is a mean and bad thing to do?
[...] Of all the pieces of armor in religion's armory, this one is uniquely effective. [...] How do you make a case with someone who thinks that the very act of making a case makes you a bad person?
[...] I think that within this circle of ecumenical, "all religions are getting at the truth in their own way," "we're fine with people of different faiths as long as they're fine with our faith" believers, the main context they have for people outside that circle is intolerant fundamentalism and theocracy. The main context they have for people who criticize other people's religions and argue that they're mistaken is the religious right in America, and Islamic extremists in the Muslim world, and so on. They just don't have a context for people who think that other people's religions are mistaken... and are nevertheless passionate about the right to religious freedom. They just don't have a context for people who spend a significant amount of time and energy trying to convince others to change their religious beliefs... and are trying to do it, not by law, not by force, not by bribery or intimidation, but by reason and evidence and persuasion, in public forums devoted to debate, and in private conversations with people who have expressed an interest.
So atheists -- or at least atheist activists, atheists who make arguments against religion and try to persuade people that it's mistaken -- automatically get slotted into the "intolerant fundamentalists who want to force everyone to be just like them" camp. That's the only context the ecumenical New Agers have for people who strongly disagree with other people's religions. So that's the context we get stuck in. Here's Round One.
It does give me real pause for thought that so many of my intelligent and thoughtful friends have quite a different view on this one, and on this as on so many things, I mean to be open to persuasion :-) | comments: 36 comments or Leave a comment  |
| | I enjoyed Freakonomics, and I'm looking forward to reading the sequel, Superfreakonomics. However, be warned: it looks like everything you read in "Why Everything You Think You Know About Global Warming Is Wrong" is wrong.
If you only have time for one example, look at the way they utterly misrepresent Ken Caldiera, leaving readers with an impression of his views diametrically opposed to the reality.
What they say he says:
Yet his research tells him that carbon dioxide is not the right villain in this fight.
What he actually believes:
"Carbon dioxide is the right villain," says Caldeira, "insofar as inanimate objects can be villains."
What he has to say about the misrepresentation:
If you talk all day, and somebody picks a half dozen quotes without providing context because they want to make a provocative and controversial chapter, there is not much you can do.
Global warming denialism is nothing more than an industry-funded front to slow acceptance of well-established science. Please don't let any of the nonsense that gets peddled about it lead you to think there is any real doubt about the danger we face.
Update: Levitt and Dubner have blogged in response to the criticism they've received. “The only significant error,” [Calderia] wrote to Romm, “is the line: ‘carbon dioxide is not the right villain in this fight.’ That is just wrong and I never would have said it. On the other hand, I f&@?ed up. They sent me the draft and I approved it without reading it carefully and I just missed it. … I think everyone operated in good faith, and this was just a mistake that got by my inadequate editing.” [...]
“I believe all of the ideas attributed to me are based on fact, with the exception of the ‘carbon dioxide is not the right villain’ line,” he wrote. “That said, when I am speaking, I place these facts in a very different context and draw different policy conclusions.
They also say that the "global cooling" thing Connolley opens with is a drastic misrepresentation of the chapter. So that's two down, eighteen to go...
Update: Also interesting: Gavin Schmidt of RealClimate on Why Levitt and Dubner like geo-engineering and why they are wrong. | comments: 14 comments or Leave a comment  |
| We want to put some bookshelves above our living room window. We'd like to create as much space as possible and the brackets aren't very attractive, so we're thinking of mounting the brackets above the shelves instead of below.
I'm not sure, but I think this will reduce the amount of weight the shelf can carry before pulling the rawlplugs out of the masonary. I'm guessing that it won't reduce it so much that we have to worry, but does anyone know better?
Thanks! | comments: 13 comments or Leave a comment  |
| The LCROSS_NASA probe to the moon was tweeting as it fell:
- I'm 300km from the moon! #lcross 7 minutes ago from web
-
Wow, 150km from the moon! #lcross 7 minutes ago from web
-
“And what's this thing coming toward me very fast? So big and flat and round, 6 minutes ago from web
-
it needs a big wide sounding name like 'Ow', 'Ownge', 'Round', 'Ground'!” 6 minutes ago from web
-
“That's it! Ground! Ha! I wonder if it'll be friends with me?” 6 minutes ago from web
Wish DNA were alive to see it... | comments: 17 comments or Leave a comment  |
| I froze the discussion here because I thought it deserved a top-level post of its own, rather than being under a general discussion of Greta Christina. A few weeks ago she posted a very interesting series of articles on the fat-positive movement and her own beliefs; I'd be very interested to read more about what people think of them.
"I was frankly shocked at how callous most of the fat-positive advocates were about my bad knee. I was shocked at how quick they were to ignore or dismiss it. They were passionately concerned about the quality of life I might lose if I counted calories or stopped eating chocolate bars every day. But when it came to the quality of life I might lose if I could no longer dance, climb hills, climb stairs, take long walks, walk at all? Eh. Whatever. I should try exercise or physical therapy or something. Oh, I'd tried those things already? Well, whatever." | comments: 64 comments or Leave a comment  |
| There's a handful of bloggers whose links I propagate more rarely than I might, just because I would not be far off re-linking to everything they write, and so if you're interested in the sorts of things I'm interested in, you would be crazy not to read their blogs yourself. One of them is Greta Christina, who writes mainly about atheism, skepticism, politics, and sex. I'm finally moved to blog this after reading her insightful take on the crazy declaration from a Republican Oklahoma senator's chief of staff that "straight porn turns boys gay". But I don't think that's even a particularly stand-out article. Here's a bunch of mostly relatively recent ones:
There's more, but my laptop froze up and I lost where I was up to, so I'll stop there.
greta_christina | comments: 5 comments or Leave a comment  |
| Twelve Virtues of Rationality
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky, 2006The first virtue is curiosity. A burning itch to know is higher than a solemn vow to pursue truth. To feel the burning itch of curiosity requires both that you be ignorant, and that you desire to relinquish your ignorance. If in your heart you believe you already know, or if in your heart you do not wish to know, then your questioning will be purposeless and your skills without direction. Curiosity seeks to annihilate itself; there is no curiosity that does not want an answer. The glory of glorious mystery is to be solved, after which it ceases to be mystery. Be wary of those who speak of being open-minded and modestly confess their ignorance. There is a time to confess your ignorance and a time to relinquish your ignorance.
Read on... I've been absolutely captivated by Yudkowsky's writing on rationality for ages now; it's given me a lot of new tools with which to think about and talk about the world, and shaken me out of a lot of comfortable assumptions about my own rationality. I'd love to know what people who read here think about it. | comments: 20 comments or Leave a comment  |
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