Paul Crowley ([info]ciphergoth) wrote,
@ 2008-09-29 22:21:00
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Entry tags:intrade, politics

About the bailout being turned down
Intrade have had a market open for a few days on whether the bailout would go ahead by 30 Sep, and it's gone no higher than a 25% chance in the last 24 hours.

On the same page you'll find another market for whether we'll get one by 31 October, and that's still at 76%.

So at least some people who knew that this vote wasn't going to pass think there's going to be a bailout but not yet.

Also, scary fact from [info]spyinthehaus: the cost of the bailout is roughly four times the value of all the gold in Fort Knox.


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[info]lovingboth
2008-09-29 09:47 pm UTC (link)
I suspect it depends on the definition of 'bailout'. "Take this $700bn, US taxpayers don't need it" is probably dead.

Wait to see what happens to the price of gold tomorrow :)

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[info]_nicolai_
2008-09-29 09:50 pm UTC (link)
...but less than the cost of the war in Iraq so far...

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[info]ciphergoth
2008-09-29 10:32 pm UTC (link)
This page estimates the war in Iraq at around $558Bn so far and they seem like they're not going to be biased towards low estimates...

Edited at 2008-09-29 10:32 pm UTC

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[info]zwol
2008-09-30 02:50 am UTC (link)
I know I've seen a figure in the range of US$20-25 trillion associated with the war. Possibly that's including all the indirect costs they can think of.

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[info]_nicolai_
2008-10-01 08:12 am UTC (link)
Including 2009 spending, FAS reckon the Iraq war is $653Bn, so I agree they haven't quite hit $700Bn there. Including war in Afghanistan they reckon $858Bn to 2009.
My statement will be correct in a year or so. How encouraging.

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[info]palmer1984
2008-09-29 10:09 pm UTC (link)
It was interesting watching republicans talk about the bailout putting America on the road to socialism. They are insane.

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[info]aidan_skinner
2008-09-29 11:40 pm UTC (link)
Only because they don't understand Socialism. What they actually mean is The Conservative Nanny State.

~/o I tried to teach her about Marx and Engels, God and Angels o/~

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[info]olethros
2008-09-30 07:57 am UTC (link)
I woke up this morning to the news that the Irish Government has guaranteed both the deposits of all Irish-owned banks, and all money borrowed by them from other financial institutions. This is reported as being €400 billion - that's a couple of times our entire GDP.

BTW, worth keeping an eye on move. It's different to what's being done (or, er, not done) in either the US or EU, so talk on the radio is that it could end up being a template for other countries if it works out.

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[info]battlekitty
2008-09-30 12:52 pm UTC (link)
Interesting Monbiot article on it... I've heard a lot about it before (studied mainly as applied to energy issues) but a lot of it has never quite gelled 100% in my head - it tends to melt and go soggy around the edges a bit...

I'm waiting for the bank I have shares in in Australia to tank, taking the sum total of my life's savings with it :/

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[info]drdoug
2008-09-30 08:11 pm UTC (link)
I'm liking the moniker 'Failout'.

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