Paul Crowley (ciphergoth) wrote,

More lotteries

Thanks for all your answers and discussion in the last entry! I don't think either those questions, or these, have a straighforward "right" answer, I'm just interested how different people think about these things.

So instead of the offer last time, the behavioural economics unit funded by an eccentric billionaire is offering you a different choice. Now there are no guaranteed wins. To decide if you win, they will roll a fair 100-sided die to get a number from 1-100. If you choose the first bet and the die reads 60 or less, you win; for the second bet if it reads 9 or less, you win. However, in the first case they'll tell you only whether you won or lost, while in the second case they roll the die in front of you and you see the exact number they used to decide.

Poll #1865912 Strange lotteries part 2
Open to: All, detailed results viewable to: All, participants: 49

If you learn only whether you won or lost, would you rather have

View Answers
A 60% chance of £500 now
9 (18.8%)
A 9% chance of £1,000,000 now
39 (81.2%)

If you learn the exact die roll, would you rather have

View Answers
A 60% chance of £500 now
8 (16.7%)
A 9% chance of £1,000,000 now
40 (83.3%)
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