Paul Crowley

Tags:	intrade, politics
Subject:	About the bailout being turned down
Time:	10:21 pm

Intrade have had a market open for a few days on whether the bailout would go ahead by 30 Sep, and it's gone no higher than a 25% chance in the last 24 hours.

On the same page you'll find another market for whether we'll get one by 31 October, and that's still at 76%.

So at least some people who knew that this vote wasn't going to pass think there's going to be a bailout but not yet.

Also, scary fact from

spyinthehaus: the cost of the bailout is roughly four times the value of all the gold in Fort Knox.

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Tags:	election, intrade, politics
Subject:	Bargain at Intrade
Time:	03:44 pm

You can buy shares in Sarah Palin being dropped from the GOP ticket at the bargain price of 11.7 as of right now. That means that you can spend $11.7 on such a future, and it will be worth $100 if she's not on the ticket by election day (and $0 otherwise). I reckon it's worth at least twice that, and if I had spare money for gambling I'd buy a few...

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September 29th, 2008

September 2nd, 2008